Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -400 UNT +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -28.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.8 (-45.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -18.7 (-3.7) | 153.1 (-30.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -15.2 (-0.2) | 160.4 (-37.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#1) | 6.4 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#92) | 0.37 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#74) | 0.59 (#79) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.8% | 65.1% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 63.6% |
| REB / G | 58.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.71 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.4% | 81.7% |
| TOV% | 7.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 47.6% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.0% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 88.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 4.2% | 7.9% |
Game Analysis
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