Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | SFPA -145 UMBC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -21.5 (-36.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -14.3 (-29.3) | 141.0 (+4.0) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -11.6 (-26.6) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-4 |
| Home | 4-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#17) | 2.5 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#17) | -0.46 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#18) | -0.63 (#122) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.0% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 51.1% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 9.3% |
Game Analysis
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