Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -1600 EIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +25 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -22.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -20.7 (+4.3) | 145.8 (-20.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -16.2 (+8.8) | 147.5 (-22.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 9-18 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#14) | 1.8 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#70) | -0.46 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#51) | -0.65 (#129) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 34.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 39.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 55.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 29.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 10.0% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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