Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | IDST +240 NICH -303 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +19 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -5.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -4.5 (-14.5) | 145.5 (-24.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -9.0 (-10.0) | 140.8 (-19.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -5.0 (-14.0) | 143.5 (-22.5) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#118) | 4.7 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#111) | 1.00 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#125) | 1.44 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#35) | 0.500 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.7% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 30.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 43.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 66.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 57.1% |
Game Analysis
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