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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–9 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
28 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
@
Baylor
|
+13.5 | 141.4 | 87% | 74–84 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Kansas State
|
-3.1 | 123.6 | 30% | 70–57 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
LSU
|
+7.4 | 136.8 | 74% | 60–65 | ✓ |
Army
@
Bucknell
|
+0.7 | 149.6 | 55% | 96–89 | ✗ |
Holy Cross
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+11.3 | 136.2 | 87% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Lehigh
|
-7.0 | 143.4 | 27% | 81–85 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Navy
|
+6.1 | 131.3 | 73% | 71–83 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Wake Forest
|
+4.6 | 148.8 | 73% | 54–76 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Virginia Tech
|
+14.8 | 143.3 | 88% | 68–63 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Stetson
|
-3.2 | 133.0 | 39% | 75–59 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+13.4 | 156.8 | 88% | 79–72 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Central Michigan
|
-13.4 | 150.7 | 14% | 82–54 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Ball State
|
-1.3 | 142.4 | 46% | 66–65 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Western Michigan
|
-4.7 | 146.6 | 34% | 85–79 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Georgia
|
-6.3 | 143.5 | 24% | 81–79 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Rutgers
|
-4.4 | 138.7 | 35% | 67–75 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Minnesota
|
+0.0 | 146.2 | 55% | 76–53 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Butler
|
-6.4 | 129.6 | 25% | 71–56 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Lipscomb
|
+1.2 | 137.4 | 56% | 74–84 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+4.0 | 142.6 | 68% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
Duke
|
+18.2 | 147.3 | 91% | 57–69 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
-7.0 | 151.1 | 27% | 74–63 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Marquette
|
-2.1 | 140.1 | 34% | 56–88 | ✗ |
Air Force
@
Colorado State
|
+16.1 | 136.9 | 90% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Memphis
|
+12.5 | 146.8 | 87% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Clemson
|
+6.0 | 131.6 | 74% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Florida International
|
+10.7 | 137.0 | 87% | 65–68 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
St. John's
|
+0.9 | 153.6 | 60% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.