Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +32 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -1.3 (+33.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.2 (+32.2) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.1 (+34.1) | 140.1 (+3.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.0 (+33.0) | 139.9 (+4.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.6 (+32.6) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 14-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#95) | 10.8 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#63) | 4.19 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#66) | 4.85 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#41) | 0.678 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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