Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | FIU -1400 BCU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -13.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -9.3 (-6.3) | 138.0 (-5.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -10.7 (-7.7) | 137.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -10.7 (-7.7) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -10.5 (-7.5) | 139.0 (-6.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#203) | -10.8 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#195) | -1.48 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#207) | -1.95 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#240) | 0.421 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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