Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
| Money | NAVY -180 BU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -8.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -6.6 (+5.4) | 125.6 (+28.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -6.1 (+5.9) | 131.3 (+22.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -6.5 (+5.5) | 132.3 (+21.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -6.0 (+6.0) | 129.9 (+24.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#100) | 0.3 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#98) | 0.18 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#104) | 0.24 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#130) | 0.499 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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