Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -15.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -11.0 (-2.0) | 134.0 (+15.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -11.3 (-2.3) | 136.2 (+12.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -11.2 (-2.2) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -11.0 (-2.0) | 136.3 (+12.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#250) | -15.3 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#240) | -4.04 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#265) | -5.43 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#252) | 0.327 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.