Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -15.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -13.2 (-3.2) | 137.8 (+20.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -13.5 (-3.5) | 141.4 (+16.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -13.6 (-3.6) | 141.5 (+16.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -13.7 (-3.7) | 141.2 (+16.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 4, 2026 | OU 82 – 69 BAY |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BAY 79 – 62 OU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | BAY 82 – 72 OU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | BAY 62 – 60 OU |
| Mar 11, 2022 | OU 72 – 67 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#2) | 10.5 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.68 (#1) | 2.05 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.48 (#1) | 2.75 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#20) | 0.582 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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