Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +28 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -14.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -13.6 (-14.4) | 148.0 (-12.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -13.4 (-14.6) | 150.7 (-14.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -12.5 (-15.5) | 150.5 (-14.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -13.3 (-14.7) | 150.7 (-14.7) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TOL 78 – 75 CMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOL 69 – 67 CMU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | CMU 65 – 62 TOL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | TOL 99 – 65 CMU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | TOL 84 – 59 CMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 2-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#339) | 5.7 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#314) | 1.16 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#330) | 1.49 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#299) | 0.576 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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