Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -4.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.6 (-6.6) | 141.8 (+7.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -4.0 (-5.0) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -3.9 (-4.9) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.6 (-4.6) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | ARK 86 – 75 VAN |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ARK 93 – 68 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | ARK 90 – 77 VAN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | ARK 90 – 85 VAN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | VAN 85 – 82 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-8 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#71) | 6.8 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#73) | 0.79 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#76) | 0.87 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#88) | 0.518 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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