Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -21.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -19.1 (-11.1) | 131.9 (-5.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -16.1 (-8.1) | 136.9 (-10.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -15.2 (-7.2) | 136.9 (-10.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -13.3 (-5.3) | 136.1 (-10.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#27) | -5.0 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#6) | 0.29 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.13 (#4) | -0.21 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#9) | 0.479 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 43.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.