Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–2 on winners spread MAE 7.4 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina State -1.4 155.8 46% 94–84 ✓
UMBC @ Loyola Maryland -0.9 143.8 41% 72–69 ✓
Marshall @ UNC Greensboro -5.9 135.0 28% 67–75 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Rhode Island -5.7 137.2 34% 75–77 ✗
Princeton @ Iona +1.4 141.4 60% 64–70 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Richmond +12.5 145.6 86% 48–77 ✓
Dartmouth @ Boston University +9.5 138.9 82% 59–67 ✓
North Carolina Central @ LSU +8.0 141.3 79% 57–67 ✓
Southern @ Xavier +16.7 154.3 87% 59–79 ✓
The Citadel @ North Carolina +19.6 147.3 88% 67–100 ✓
Stonehill @ Boston College +5.9 138.7 70% 56–63 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Hartford -4.2 124.3 22% 58–57 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Houston +32.9 129.6 91% 46–74 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UIC +2.9 136.7 65% 61–70 ✓
Chicago State @ Murray State +10.6 144.6 81% 65–66 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Wichita State +22.2 131.1 91% 48–71 ✓
Florida International @ Howard +1.0 146.3 49% 59–71 ✓
Green Bay @ St. Thomas +17.1 142.7 89% 61–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ Lamar -15.8 141.3 15% 91–65 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech +14.2 137.4 86% 70–77 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Arizona +16.9 163.3 88% 61–99 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Florida State +7.0 143.0 77% 63–80 ✓
Memphis @ Alabama +14.0 151.9 83% 88–91 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Boise State +26.6 136.7 91% 50–91 ✓
UTSA @ Utah +26.3 144.4 91% 70–91 ✓
Portland State @ Santa Clara +7.5 154.1 80% 75–78 ✓
Cal Poly @ Washington +7.9 132.5 76% 68–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.