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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–2 on winners spread MAE 8.0 16 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Alabama @ Alabama A&M -6.2 145.3 27% 78–71 ✓
Columbia @ Lafayette +10.7 128.6 80% 57–45 ✗
Yale @ Fairfield -7.7 128.6 18% 77–64 ✓
Rice @ Texas +23.6 150.9 90% 81–87 ✓
South Florida @ Northern Iowa +1.5 134.1 52% 72–69 ✗
Liberty @ Oral Roberts +8.7 147.8 79% 70–84 ✓
Monmouth @ Syracuse +17.6 143.9 90% 71–86 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Gonzaga +23.7 150.9 90% 67–88 ✓
Arizona State @ Creighton -2.1 138.5 42% 73–71 ✓
UC San Diego @ San Diego +5.3 144.4 68% 58–84 ✓
Kennesaw State @ San Diego State +11.3 140.2 83% 54–88 ✓
San Francisco @ New Mexico +5.0 148.3 70% 64–67 ✓
Longwood @ St. Francis Brooklyn -3.7 134.6 30% 63–57 ✓
Coppin State @ George Washington +6.4 158.5 78% 71–83 ✓
VMI @ American University +13.8 143.4 87% 61–69 ✓
Furman @ NC State +12.3 151.7 84% 73–92 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.