All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Charles E. Smith Center · December 13, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread GW -6.5 Home covered
O/U 157.5 Under
Money GW -275 / COPP +275
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual GW +12 154 Won
Massey GW -7.4 (+4.6) — —
Massey Totals — 167.6 (-13.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 51% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 53% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GW -6.3 (+5.7) 153.6 (+0.4) 77% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML GW -6.4 (+5.6) 159.0 (-5.0) 73% ✓
Baseline ML GW -6.4 (+5.6) 158.5 (-4.5) 78% ✓
Baseline Plus ML GW -6.9 (+5.1) 155.9 (-1.9) 77% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 9, 2023 GW 76 – 45 COPP
Dec 8, 2021 GW 75 – 62 COPP
Dec 5, 2020 GW 85 – 69 COPP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW COPP
Overall 16-16 9-23
Conference 10-8 4-10
Home 11-6 4-6
Away 5-6 5-16
Neutral 0-4 0-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 76.0 72.0
Avg Pts Against 77.3 83.2
Massey -2.4 (#218) -4.5 (#256)
Bradley-Terry -0.97 (#266) 0.00 (#180)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.38 (#269) -0.28 (#206)
RPI 0.429 (#282) 0.523 (#136)
Shooting & Four Factors GW COPP
FG% 48.3% 45.0%
3PT% 33.9% 34.9%
REB / G 33.6 32.0
OREB / G 8.4 7.9
AST / TO 1.10 0.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.7% 52.5%
TOV% 18.4% 19.8%
ORB% 28.0% 22.6%
FT Rate 26.0% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.3% 54.6%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 17.8%
DRB% 69.2% 63.0%
Opp FT Rate 16.2% 22.1%

Game Analysis

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