Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -250 FUR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +19 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -13.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -13.0 (+6.0) | 150.2 (+14.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -9.6 (+9.4) | 149.0 (+16.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -12.2 (+6.8) | 151.0 (+14.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -12.3 (+6.7) | 151.7 (+13.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#43) | 1.7 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#90) | 0.31 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#84) | 0.34 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#86) | 0.522 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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