Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -175 USF +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -2.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -2.7 (-5.7) | 131.2 (+9.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -1.8 (-4.8) | 134.0 (+7.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -1.5 (-4.5) | 134.1 (+6.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -1.2 (-4.2) | 133.2 (+7.8) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | USF 74 – 65 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#263) | -1.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#338) | -1.84 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#331) | -1.73 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#339) | 0.428 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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