Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +21 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -26.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -23.0 (-2.0) | 150.2 (+4.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -22.9 (-1.9) | 150.7 (+4.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -21.4 (-0.4) | 151.2 (+3.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -23.7 (-2.7) | 150.9 (+4.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 7-2 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#17) | -7.5 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#27) | -1.92 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#28) | -3.02 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#6) | 0.394 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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