Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -188 SF +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -7.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -5.9 (-2.9) | 149.4 (-18.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -3.7 (-0.7) | 147.6 (-16.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.3 (-3.3) | 148.0 (-17.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -5.0 (-2.0) | 148.3 (-17.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#44) | 2.3 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#8) | 1.40 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.47 (#6) | 1.91 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#31) | 0.537 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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