Betting Lines
| Spread | ORU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ORU -138 LIB +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORU +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ORU -10.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORU -7.6 (+6.4) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORU -6.2 (+7.8) | 146.0 (+8.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORU -9.2 (+4.8) | 146.6 (+7.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORU -8.7 (+5.3) | 147.8 (+6.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-0 | 19-1 |
| Away | 11-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#61) | 3.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#58) | 0.90 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#58) | 1.49 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#38) | 0.529 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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