Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SFBK +240 LONG -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -6.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -5.0 (-1.0) | 134.4 (-14.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LONG -8.0 (+2.0) | 132.5 (-12.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LONG -4.1 (-1.9) | 134.7 (-14.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -3.7 (-2.3) | 134.6 (-14.6) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFBK | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#330) | 1.8 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#295) | -1.12 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#306) | -1.27 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#286) | 0.448 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFBK | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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