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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.0
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+5.9 | 147.5 | 72% | 74–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 137.9 | 55% | 55–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.7 | 142.3 | 16% | 66–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 153.0 | 82% | 92–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 149.4 | 67% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 140.0 | 76% | 84–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 149.1 | 49% | 75–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 137.6 | 85% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 159.6 | 86% | 61–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.8 | 143.7 | 14% | 66–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 144.1 | 43% | 70–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 145.7 | 65% | 79–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 141.3 | 84% | 69–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 152.3 | 76% | 57–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 149.1 | 75% | 82–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 153.7 | 86% | 61–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 149.7 | 69% | 53–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 133.5 | 75% | 61–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 137.3 | 66% | 54–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 138.1 | 70% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.6 | 136.4 | 16% | 77–45 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.8 | 136.2 | 91% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 162.1 | 88% | 68–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 135.7 | 52% | 55–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 140.2 | 77% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 134.5 | 71% | 81–78 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.