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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–6 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas State
@
Texas Tech
|
+16.0 | 133.9 | 88% | 71–82 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
+3.9 | 132.2 | 72% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Duquesne
|
+0.3 | 138.2 | 44% | 61–48 | ✗ |
Vanderbilt
@
Kentucky
|
+5.7 | 134.4 | 69% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Alabama
|
+2.8 | 150.9 | 65% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Texas
|
+16.8 | 138.5 | 89% | 72–78 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+10.2 | 150.1 | 85% | 77–81 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Miami
|
-2.4 | 136.0 | 40% | 67–65 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Mississippi State
|
-4.0 | 140.7 | 41% | 63–78 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Michigan State
|
-4.9 | 152.4 | 30% | 45–68 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Marquette
|
+1.5 | 141.9 | 52% | 65–54 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
TCU
|
-0.4 | 137.7 | 49% | 93–64 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
South Florida
|
+0.5 | 131.8 | 52% | 61–51 | ✗ |
Saint Joseph's
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+12.3 | 151.1 | 86% | 57–83 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Syracuse
|
+9.1 | 144.1 | 77% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Richmond
|
+4.3 | 142.4 | 70% | 73–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Louisville
|
+2.2 | 135.4 | 60% | 71–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.