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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–9 on winners spread MAE 10.0 25 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Carolina State @ Delaware State	+1.9	135.3	57%	61–59	✗
Duke @ NC State	-10.0	152.6	18%	93–64	✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+3.7	132.9	63%	77–73	✗
Coppin State @ Howard	+23.2	144.8	98%	70–90	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State	+1.9	180.7	57%	93–101	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Incarnate Word	-8.8	144.0	21%	76–68	✓
Northwestern State @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+11.9	140.3	86%	62–74	✓
McNeese @ Nicholls	-10.6	148.5	17%	75–65	✓
SE Louisiana @ New Orleans	+9.2	146.2	80%	82–78	✗
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+10.0	136.2	82%	71–84	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-8.6	140.3	22%	76–65	✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado	+4.9	156.9	67%	57–85	✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian	-2.3	134.6	42%	53–75	✗
Iowa State @ Arizona	+6.5	152.3	72%	57–73	✓
Idaho @ Eastern Washington	+3.1	155.3	61%	85–81	✗
Weber State @ Portland State	+4.6	150.2	66%	60–84	✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State	+0.8	161.0	53%	65–83	✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine	+0.4	137.5	51%	67–56	✗
UMBC @ NJIT	-5.0	141.1	33%	91–52	✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire	+4.2	134.8	65%	83–88	✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina	-10.2	142.9	18%	78–59	✓
Georgia State @ Louisiana	-1.4	129.3	45%	75–84	✗
Alabama @ Georgia	-0.2	187.9	49%	88–98	✗
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo	+5.3	146.9	69%	67–72	✓
Towson @ Stony Brook	+0.1	130.0	50%	69–57	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.