Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–3 on winners spread MAE 7.1 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina State -2.3 164.2 42% 94–84 ✓
UMBC @ Loyola Maryland -1.4 140.5 45% 72–69 ✓
Marshall @ UNC Greensboro -7.6 132.5 25% 67–75 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Rhode Island -6.6 136.8 28% 75–77 ✗
Princeton @ Iona +4.6 140.7 66% 64–70 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Richmond +16.1 149.5 93% 48–77 ✓
Dartmouth @ Boston University +14.0 142.8 90% 59–67 ✓
North Carolina Central @ LSU +7.5 142.6 75% 57–67 ✓
Southern @ Xavier +18.3 158.6 95% 59–79 ✓
The Citadel @ North Carolina +22.8 147.6 98% 67–100 ✓
Stonehill @ Boston College +6.9 141.5 74% 56–63 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Hartford -7.4 127.9 25% 58–57 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Houston +35.2 127.4 100% 46–74 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UIC +2.1 135.3 58% 61–70 ✓
Chicago State @ Murray State +11.6 147.3 85% 65–66 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Wichita State +24.0 121.5 99% 48–71 ✓
Florida International @ Howard -0.1 148.2 50% 59–71 ✗
Green Bay @ St. Thomas +21.6 139.4 98% 61–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ Lamar -18.7 139.0 4% 91–65 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech +14.6 130.0 91% 70–77 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Arizona +17.5 169.7 94% 61–99 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Florida State +11.9 145.8 86% 63–80 ✓
Memphis @ Alabama +15.2 149.5 92% 88–91 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Boise State +30.2 135.9 100% 50–91 ✓
UTSA @ Utah +27.5 137.8 99% 70–91 ✓
Portland State @ Santa Clara +8.5 158.2 78% 75–78 ✓
Cal Poly @ Washington +9.8 124.3 81% 68–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.