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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–3 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Alabama
@
Alabama A&M
|
-9.6 | 143.8 | 19% | 78–71 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
Lafayette
|
+13.4 | 125.0 | 89% | 57–45 | ✗ |
Yale
@
Fairfield
|
-9.9 | 121.5 | 18% | 77–64 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Texas
|
+30.1 | 144.0 | 100% | 81–87 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Northern Iowa
|
+1.7 | 129.5 | 56% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Oral Roberts
|
+8.9 | 149.0 | 79% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Syracuse
|
+21.4 | 138.3 | 97% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Gonzaga
|
+27.0 | 151.0 | 99% | 67–88 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Creighton
|
+0.0 | 138.9 | 50% | 73–71 | ✗ |
UC San Diego
@
San Diego
|
+8.1 | 145.9 | 77% | 58–84 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
San Diego State
|
+13.9 | 140.3 | 90% | 54–88 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
New Mexico
|
+8.5 | 152.2 | 78% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
-7.6 | 131.0 | 24% | 63–57 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
George Washington
|
+7.9 | 168.7 | 76% | 71–83 | ✓ |
VMI
@
American University
|
+16.7 | 140.3 | 94% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Furman
@
NC State
|
+13.6 | 153.2 | 89% | 73–92 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.