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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
3–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
5 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Howard
@
VCU
|
+16.9 | 133.3 | 94% | 60–70 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Hofstra
|
+1.1 | 151.3 | 54% | 71–56 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Minnesota
|
-12.8 | 115.9 | 12% | 69–51 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Hawai'i
|
+17.8 | 135.2 | 95% | 66–90 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Stony Brook
|
-3.0 | 143.2 | 39% | 64–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.