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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
28 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
@
Baylor
|
+14.6 | 137.8 | 91% | 74–84 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Kansas State
|
-4.8 | 115.1 | 33% | 70–57 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
LSU
|
+7.5 | 135.6 | 75% | 60–65 | ✓ |
Army
@
Bucknell
|
+1.9 | 149.9 | 57% | 96–89 | ✗ |
Holy Cross
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+16.4 | 134.6 | 93% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Lehigh
|
-7.4 | 145.7 | 25% | 81–85 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Navy
|
+7.9 | 125.5 | 76% | 71–83 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Wake Forest
|
+5.3 | 146.9 | 68% | 54–76 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Virginia Tech
|
+17.9 | 140.6 | 95% | 68–63 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Stetson
|
-3.7 | 124.7 | 37% | 75–59 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+21.2 | 165.2 | 97% | 79–72 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Central Michigan
|
-14.0 | 151.5 | 10% | 82–54 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Ball State
|
-0.5 | 140.9 | 48% | 66–65 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Western Michigan
|
-5.9 | 151.3 | 30% | 85–79 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Georgia
|
-5.6 | 140.5 | 30% | 81–79 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Rutgers
|
-4.3 | 129.8 | 35% | 67–75 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Minnesota
|
-3.1 | 143.8 | 39% | 76–53 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Butler
|
-8.6 | 128.2 | 22% | 71–56 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Lipscomb
|
+2.4 | 135.9 | 59% | 74–84 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+4.6 | 140.5 | 66% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
Duke
|
+23.1 | 145.8 | 98% | 57–69 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
-6.0 | 151.7 | 29% | 74–63 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Marquette
|
-1.7 | 142.5 | 44% | 56–88 | ✗ |
Air Force
@
Colorado State
|
+20.5 | 132.7 | 97% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Memphis
|
+16.0 | 148.3 | 93% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Clemson
|
+7.0 | 122.8 | 74% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Florida International
|
+14.3 | 131.8 | 90% | 65–68 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
St. John's
|
+3.2 | 158.2 | 61% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.