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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–16 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.4 | 147.8 | 48% | 99–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 144.2 | 40% | 66–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 143.1 | 89% | 64–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 141.8 | 86% | 73–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 127.6 | 60% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.2 | 146.6 | 88% | 72–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 155.9 | 86% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 152.0 | 87% | 51–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 132.6 | 69% | 58–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 143.5 | 57% | 77–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.0 | 142.8 | 89% | 56–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 145.0 | 65% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 138.5 | 43% | 54–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.1 | 145.7 | 48% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 144.1 | 56% | 62–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.0 | 145.2 | 88% | 68–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 147.3 | 64% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+26.1 | 142.8 | 91% | 49–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 146.3 | 83% | 58–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 150.5 | 81% | 81–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 145.6 | 23% | 77–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 145.3 | 72% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 134.2 | 57% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.3 | 136.7 | 90% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 130.5 | 89% | 42–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 151.0 | 43% | 83–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 137.9 | 55% | 54–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 145.1 | 33% | 85–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 152.3 | 72% | 75–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.3 | 137.5 | 40% | 89–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.1 | 143.1 | 29% | 71–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 144.4 | 28% | 60–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 143.9 | 45% | 95–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 153.0 | 56% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 142.4 | 86% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 134.2 | 54% | 68–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 143.1 | 63% | 67–42 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.4 | 143.9 | 45% | 67–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 131.4 | 57% | 60–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 145.4 | 66% | 70–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 146.1 | 50% | 77–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 133.5 | 76% | 60–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 139.3 | 26% | 73–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 133.3 | 57% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 142.5 | 55% | 69–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+25.0 | 151.6 | 91% | 53–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.9 | 132.1 | 89% | 69–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 132.5 | 81% | 67–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 139.2 | 27% | 53–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 149.6 | 82% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.4 | 133.9 | 89% | 60–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 152.0 | 34% | 82–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.