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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–16 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grambling
@
Jackson State
|
-5.9 | 138.6 | 31% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Merrimack
|
+0.6 | 129.6 | 57% | 64–54 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Portland State
|
+2.9 | 143.6 | 66% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Santa Clara
@
Gonzaga
|
+8.8 | 146.8 | 83% | 68–79 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Jacksonville State
|
-1.6 | 139.4 | 47% | 68–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
McNeese
|
+7.5 | 136.6 | 76% | 80–84 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Colorado
|
+2.7 | 162.0 | 44% | 92–83 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Eastern Washington
|
-0.9 | 146.2 | 49% | 81–68 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
La Salle
|
-2.8 | 144.3 | 36% | 99–80 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Iowa
|
+10.9 | 133.7 | 85% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
NC State
|
+8.5 | 142.7 | 80% | 88–98 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Iowa State
|
+11.3 | 145.1 | 84% | 42–91 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+9.0 | 152.1 | 75% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+3.6 | 147.2 | 66% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Richmond
|
+8.0 | 137.7 | 80% | 75–67 | ✗ |
USC
@
Washington
|
+2.6 | 148.3 | 62% | 79–83 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Louisville
|
+6.5 | 159.3 | 75% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
UNLV
|
-1.3 | 151.6 | 42% | 70–73 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Auburn
|
+9.3 | 158.0 | 83% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
UCF
|
-2.1 | 146.6 | 46% | 65–66 | ✗ |
Providence
@
Butler
|
+1.2 | 164.0 | 46% | 91–81 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
-1.1 | 136.4 | 51% | 76–59 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Nevada
|
+19.2 | 139.9 | 90% | 45–80 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Morgan State
|
+3.6 | 135.6 | 78% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Xavier
@
Marquette
|
+2.1 | 147.7 | 58% | 89–87 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Liberty
|
+6.1 | 143.1 | 75% | 77–69 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Indiana
|
+4.3 | 137.9 | 70% | 74–61 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Texas
|
+7.9 | 151.9 | 74% | 76–66 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Lehigh
|
+1.0 | 145.4 | 57% | 60–74 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Memphis
|
+4.4 | 146.2 | 75% | 81–69 | ✗ |
California
@
Florida State
|
-0.1 | 145.3 | 50% | 89–95 | ✗ |
BYU
@
West Virginia
|
-4.2 | 141.3 | 35% | 68–48 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.