If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–7 on winners spread MAE 6.6 23 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling +13.4 130.8 89% 52–77 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +5.2 129.9 69% 65–68 ✓
Nicholls @ UT Rio Grande Valley +6.0 135.6 76% 68–86 ✓
Oregon State @ Gonzaga +23.5 145.6 91% 56–65 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +4.8 144.3 75% 70–64 ✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +1.6 153.6 65% 79–84 ✓
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +4.9 143.7 72% 76–71 ✗
Baylor @ Arizona State -2.3 151.1 40% 79–83 ✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M +5.9 140.2 80% 56–65 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Stanford +4.0 139.2 70% 64–63 ✗
Utah @ Cincinnati +10.9 141.4 86% 66–73 ✓
Syracuse @ SMU +5.1 154.2 72% 69–86 ✓
Maryland @ Oregon +2.5 137.6 66% 70–60 ✗
UMass Lowell @ UMBC +10.6 143.5 85% 69–91 ✓
Missouri State @ Florida International +0.5 146.6 54% 75–72 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Long Island University +5.7 135.0 75% 70–79 ✓
Kansas State @ BYU +10.2 160.3 85% 91–105 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +10.8 133.6 87% 54–63 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +2.1 146.3 59% 95–89 ✗
Monmouth @ Hofstra +6.9 133.5 78% 69–75 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Stephen F. Austin +8.5 133.2 81% 58–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +4.9 150.4 73% 63–66 ✓
Penn State @ Northwestern +7.2 140.2 80% 66–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.