He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–9 on winners spread MAE 10.2 25 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Creighton @ Providence +2.2 143.5 64% 86–94 ✓
NC State @ Syracuse -1.8 148.5 46% 72–75 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso -4.4 133.7 33% 66–62 ✓
Notre Dame @ Duke +14.0 141.1 88% 64–68 ✓
Illinois @ Penn State -1.4 142.5 44% 81–93 ✗
Missouri @ Auburn +5.0 153.3 71% 56–89 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Massachusetts +5.7 148.8 74% 64–62 ✗
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -7.6 150.2 23% 78–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo +14.7 155.1 87% 71–89 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Ball State +8.1 148.2 83% 77–87 ✓
Central Michigan @ Bowling Green +3.2 144.7 63% 77–74 ✗
Buffalo @ Ohio +4.7 161.7 72% 61–85 ✓
Kent State @ Western Michigan -13.3 142.2 16% 82–58 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +5.7 131.5 71% 50–62 ✓
Nebraska @ Rutgers +11.7 134.3 83% 82–72 ✗
LSU @ Georgia +3.8 140.8 68% 63–65 ✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma State +1.8 140.5 61% 87–76 ✗
Kansas State @ Oklahoma -1.5 142.9 51% 65–79 ✗
Boston College @ Pittsburgh +12.7 143.0 88% 58–77 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -1.1 156.0 45% 92–83 ✓
Michigan @ Wisconsin +1.9 133.3 65% 59–64 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +12.2 142.1 87% 65–80 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +12.1 155.1 85% 70–56 ✗
San José State @ UNLV +5.0 140.2 70% 75–66 ✗
Ole Miss @ Florida +8.7 139.5 78% 64–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.