I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 9.7 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UCF @ Temple -1.3 138.0 45% 65–48 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina Central -3.2 138.9 40% 71–72 ✗
Marshall @ Ohio +7.2 149.9 75% 65–75 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Campbell +6.3 128.4 64% 69–66 ✗
Winthrop @ Elon -6.4 154.6 32% 61–63 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ VCU +11.6 136.5 82% 46–66 ✓
South Dakota State @ Missouri State +5.2 155.1 72% 63–75 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +2.8 142.5 60% 59–66 ✓
Fairfield @ Fairleigh Dickinson -9.2 143.9 17% 72–54 ✓
Akron @ Wright State -0.3 146.3 43% 66–48 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Ole Miss +1.8 138.4 55% 52–62 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +10.6 140.0 82% 55–80 ✓
Nicholls @ Wisconsin +14.4 139.7 87% 68–71 ✓
Lamar @ Texas State +16.4 143.9 88% 47–67 ✓
Bellarmine @ South Dakota +3.6 140.1 67% 64–78 ✓
Morehead State @ Xavier +15.3 138.3 88% 63–86 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Arizona +26.4 162.2 91% 76–101 ✓
UC Irvine @ USC +10.9 132.0 81% 61–66 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Abilene Christian +15.0 136.3 87% 59–69 ✓
Utah State @ Weber State +1.5 143.3 58% 95–80 ✗
Portland @ Oregon +10.7 143.2 82% 71–96 ✓
Lipscomb @ Florida State +13.8 147.0 88% 60–97 ✓
UC San Diego @ Denver -1.3 136.8 50% 56–64 ✗
New Mexico State @ Washington State +10.7 143.5 80% 64–61 ✗
Omaha @ UNLV +17.3 144.9 90% 71–84 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Rice +13.1 156.6 86% 55–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.