← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–12 on winners
spread MAE 11.1
27 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-3.1 | 137.3 | 40% | 49–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 143.5 | 84% | 63–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 141.3 | 78% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 133.3 | 48% | 97–91 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.6 | 146.9 | 16% | 56–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 137.5 | 63% | 67–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.4 | 142.9 | 77% | 57–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 137.1 | 52% | 63–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.3 | 143.7 | 13% | 72–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 148.8 | 64% | 79–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.0 | 159.4 | 89% | 72–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 140.2 | 37% | 71–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 150.2 | 79% | 69–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.3 | 154.6 | 83% | 65–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 148.4 | 77% | 74–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 160.3 | 66% | 105–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.8 | 131.9 | 86% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 141.8 | 74% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 138.1 | 69% | 64–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 138.6 | 57% | 64–46 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.4 | 129.0 | 90% | 58–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 150.0 | 49% | 59–48 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.4 | 140.3 | 13% | 78–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 162.5 | 43% | 83–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 136.3 | 60% | 54–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 135.6 | 27% | 69–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 132.7 | 61% | 54–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.