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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–15 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grambling
@
Jackson State
|
-5.2 | 141.1 | 29% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Merrimack
|
-0.2 | 128.5 | 51% | 64–54 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Portland State
|
+3.8 | 143.0 | 68% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Santa Clara
@
Gonzaga
|
+8.0 | 147.0 | 81% | 68–79 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Jacksonville State
|
-0.8 | 140.5 | 49% | 68–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
McNeese
|
+7.2 | 135.2 | 76% | 80–84 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Colorado
|
+2.0 | 164.6 | 41% | 92–83 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Eastern Washington
|
-1.0 | 147.3 | 50% | 81–68 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
La Salle
|
-2.7 | 143.7 | 34% | 99–80 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Iowa
|
+11.5 | 133.7 | 87% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
NC State
|
+9.6 | 143.7 | 79% | 88–98 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Iowa State
|
+11.8 | 145.1 | 85% | 42–91 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+9.6 | 153.6 | 79% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+3.0 | 152.2 | 64% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Richmond
|
+8.8 | 136.5 | 82% | 75–67 | ✗ |
USC
@
Washington
|
+2.7 | 150.3 | 63% | 79–83 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Louisville
|
+6.9 | 160.9 | 76% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
UNLV
|
-0.9 | 151.9 | 41% | 70–73 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Auburn
|
+10.4 | 159.3 | 85% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
UCF
|
-0.8 | 147.3 | 46% | 65–66 | ✗ |
Providence
@
Butler
|
+0.5 | 166.3 | 49% | 91–81 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
-1.3 | 135.0 | 42% | 76–59 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Nevada
|
+18.7 | 137.9 | 90% | 45–80 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Morgan State
|
+3.8 | 137.1 | 73% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Xavier
@
Marquette
|
+2.6 | 148.0 | 59% | 89–87 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Liberty
|
+6.5 | 142.8 | 76% | 77–69 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Indiana
|
+4.7 | 140.3 | 68% | 74–61 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Texas
|
+9.6 | 149.3 | 81% | 76–66 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Lehigh
|
+1.6 | 145.6 | 60% | 60–74 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Memphis
|
+5.0 | 147.7 | 77% | 81–69 | ✗ |
California
@
Florida State
|
-0.3 | 148.1 | 48% | 89–95 | ✗ |
BYU
@
West Virginia
|
-4.3 | 139.0 | 37% | 68–48 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.