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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
35–17 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.5 | 148.2 | 38% | 99–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 147.0 | 43% | 66–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.4 | 143.3 | 89% | 64–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 137.9 | 84% | 73–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 126.8 | 54% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.9 | 146.2 | 89% | 72–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 153.7 | 85% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.4 | 150.7 | 88% | 51–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 127.3 | 54% | 58–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 146.4 | 55% | 77–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.0 | 144.4 | 90% | 56–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 145.3 | 71% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 137.9 | 55% | 54–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 148.7 | 52% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 144.9 | 57% | 62–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.2 | 143.8 | 88% | 68–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 146.9 | 41% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+37.3 | 145.0 | 91% | 49–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 148.2 | 87% | 58–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 151.9 | 77% | 81–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 144.7 | 29% | 77–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 146.3 | 61% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 134.8 | 40% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.4 | 136.0 | 89% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.9 | 127.2 | 88% | 42–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 151.7 | 38% | 83–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 136.7 | 56% | 54–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 147.1 | 30% | 85–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 147.1 | 47% | 75–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.0 | 140.2 | 40% | 89–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 145.6 | 25% | 71–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 146.1 | 35% | 60–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 148.7 | 46% | 95–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 153.1 | 67% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 146.1 | 80% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 133.9 | 52% | 68–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 142.7 | 58% | 67–42 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.2 | 142.0 | 49% | 67–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 127.0 | 63% | 60–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 149.3 | 61% | 70–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 147.0 | 43% | 77–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.9 | 138.1 | 75% | 60–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 133.7 | 38% | 73–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 129.4 | 52% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.8 | 54% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+28.0 | 153.8 | 91% | 53–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.0 | 131.9 | 89% | 69–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 129.0 | 74% | 67–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.6 | 142.5 | 32% | 53–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 151.7 | 83% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.8 | 132.8 | 89% | 60–104 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 152.3 | 26% | 82–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.