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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–6 on winners spread MAE 8.7 24 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Northern Iowa @ Murray State	-3.7	137.8	37%	74–67	✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State	-20.4	139.1	3%	79–56	✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman	+3.8	143.3	63%	84–71	✗
Lehigh @ Bucknell	+6.5	146.9	72%	50–67	✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M	+3.3	136.0	62%	76–85	✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-0.4	169.3	49%	75–61	✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana	-6.7	135.6	27%	88–82	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M	-2.9	129.1	39%	76–74	✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State	+19.8	135.4	96%	57–87	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling	+5.7	145.1	70%	48–70	✓
Nicholls @ New Orleans	-8.1	154.7	23%	78–62	✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State	-0.3	129.0	49%	75–65	✓
Incarnate Word @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+5.4	149.4	69%	66–60	✗
Duke @ Virginia	-16.3	125.3	7%	80–62	✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central	+8.0	163.8	77%	92–78	✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State	+10.8	147.9	84%	84–96	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+9.8	142.2	81%	62–68	✓
Kansas State @ Utah	+2.5	148.5	59%	69–74	✓
Texas Southern @ Southern	+8.5	141.0	78%	57–66	✓
Arizona @ Baylor	+0.3	156.0	51%	74–67	✗
Villanova @ UConn	+5.4	143.8	69%	59–66	✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast	+3.4	137.7	62%	56–72	✓
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine	-4.8	145.8	33%	68–94	✗
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan	-5.8	153.7	30%	66–76	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.