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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 7.1 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Syracuse @ Duke	+18.0	143.2	90%	64–101	✓
Wagner @ Long Island University	+9.3	139.5	82%	65–83	✓
Howard @ Delaware State	-9.7	130.3	13%	91–59	✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central	+4.2	141.4	71%	76–80	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State	+14.0	139.3	89%	55–92	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State	-4.9	147.8	27%	86–91	✗
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M	-1.1	144.7	53%	63–68	✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-1.6	131.8	34%	70–66	✓
South Alabama @ Marshall	+3.4	147.2	68%	80–84	✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+4.4	137.6	67%	65–70	✓
New Orleans @ Incarnate Word	+1.1	148.9	64%	78–64	✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State	-13.8	138.7	12%	75–64	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+3.6	134.2	67%	62–65	✓
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State	-0.2	137.5	47%	86–78	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M	+2.8	142.8	70%	70–82	✓
Southern @ Texas Southern	-0.7	151.7	48%	73–74	✗
Drexel @ Stony Brook	+1.9	133.2	60%	69–72	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-2.5	134.9	46%	78–68	✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian	-0.4	138.0	47%	68–72	✗
Houston @ Iowa State	+5.2	131.2	68%	67–70	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern	+14.0	156.9	89%	66–75	✓
Boston College @ Florida State	+9.7	144.2	82%	72–80	✓
Michigan @ Purdue	-0.5	152.9	56%	91–80	✓
Villanova @ Xavier	-4.4	149.1	33%	92–89	✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo	+10.3	140.7	86%	72–70	✗
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	+3.1	144.2	52%	54–66	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.