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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–10 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
28 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+28.0 | 162.0 | 91% | 82–112 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 142.2 | 38% | 108–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 142.2 | 80% | 68–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.6 | 162.7 | 82% | 83–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 150.9 | 27% | 75–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 142.5 | 85% | 57–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.8 | 147.0 | 90% | 83–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 141.4 | 89% | 51–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 133.0 | 84% | 67–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 144.1 | 79% | 84–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 131.8 | 55% | 68–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 157.6 | 77% | 72–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.6 | 151.1 | 16% | 88–90 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.9 | 153.1 | 91% | 79–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.6 | 147.9 | 90% | 53–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 153.4 | 81% | 67–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 130.2 | 87% | 54–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 136.2 | 63% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 141.0 | 69% | 77–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.2 | 144.5 | 85% | 76–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 148.4 | 50% | 75–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 152.1 | 56% | 74–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 135.6 | 63% | 78–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 148.8 | 52% | 63–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 132.6 | 75% | 81–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 144.5 | 50% | 87–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.9 | 139.9 | 91% | 55–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 151.7 | 56% | 72–67 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.