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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–10 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.5 | 147.8 | 43% | 70–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 140.6 | 67% | 79–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.6 | 160.9 | 22% | 80–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 137.5 | 48% | 70–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 138.8 | 48% | 72–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.7 | 152.1 | 76% | 86–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 151.0 | 72% | 68–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.6 | 138.5 | 91% | 62–109 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 134.7 | 20% | 76–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.5 | 147.1 | 88% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 148.4 | 51% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 138.6 | 31% | 71–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 148.1 | 60% | 71–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 145.9 | 69% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 142.5 | 46% | 65–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.4 | 141.6 | 23% | 74–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.1 | 158.4 | 90% | 59–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 134.5 | 77% | 52–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.0 | 147.3 | 90% | 54–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 156.1 | 53% | 75–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.7 | 131.1 | 31% | 80–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 140.4 | 46% | 63–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 147.5 | 88% | 69–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 161.5 | 81% | 78–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 138.9 | 79% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 150.7 | 61% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 146.2 | 63% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 143.6 | 88% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 135.7 | 73% | 57–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 136.9 | 65% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 139.9 | 87% | 55–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 141.6 | 83% | 74–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.5 | 155.2 | 88% | 62–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.1 | 155.5 | 88% | 69–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 154.0 | 57% | 83–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 153.7 | 45% | 68–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 141.0 | 34% | 72–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 142.7 | 60% | 76–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 147.8 | 71% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 162.2 | 78% | 95–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 151.3 | 40% | 63–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.4 | 138.0 | 85% | 67–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 142.5 | 56% | 50–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.