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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–6 on winners spread MAE 9.4 24 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Northern Iowa @ Murray State	-2.1	133.6	41%	74–67	✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State	-14.3	135.4	12%	79–56	✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman	+1.4	145.9	52%	84–71	✗
Lehigh @ Bucknell	+5.1	145.3	74%	50–67	✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M	+1.3	138.1	54%	76–85	✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-1.9	151.8	32%	75–61	✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana	-5.8	134.7	21%	88–82	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M	-4.4	133.8	26%	76–74	✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State	+15.3	140.2	89%	57–87	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling	+5.7	139.8	74%	48–70	✓
Nicholls @ New Orleans	-7.5	149.1	26%	78–62	✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State	-1.7	134.2	38%	75–65	✓
Incarnate Word @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+5.1	143.1	70%	66–60	✗
Duke @ Virginia	-12.1	127.2	16%	80–62	✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central	+6.8	155.7	72%	92–78	✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State	+8.7	148.6	83%	84–96	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+9.0	136.8	83%	62–68	✓
Kansas State @ Utah	+3.0	145.9	69%	69–74	✓
Texas Southern @ Southern	+7.3	143.2	76%	57–66	✓
Arizona @ Baylor	+1.2	148.2	52%	74–67	✗
Villanova @ UConn	+7.5	135.3	78%	59–66	✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast	+1.7	139.5	58%	56–72	✓
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine	-3.1	144.8	41%	68–94	✗
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan	-4.7	145.4	33%	66–76	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.