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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–9 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi State
@
Tennessee
|
+12.6 | 127.7 | 85% | 53–87 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Boston College
|
-0.1 | 132.6 | 49% | 63–70 | ✗ |
Syracuse
@
Louisville
|
-10.1 | 142.3 | 16% | 70–69 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan State
|
+4.6 | 130.4 | 74% | 56–74 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Vanderbilt
|
+9.8 | 132.6 | 84% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+0.4 | 154.0 | 48% | 91–65 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Toledo
|
+4.6 | 156.6 | 68% | 90–83 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+17.3 | 139.2 | 90% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
-1.4 | 152.1 | 44% | 72–75 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Akron
|
+12.4 | 138.9 | 87% | 51–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
+5.5 | 142.6 | 73% | 56–68 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+9.8 | 139.3 | 82% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Creighton
|
+8.1 | 142.2 | 81% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Texas Tech
|
+2.4 | 143.7 | 48% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Texas
|
+7.9 | 146.1 | 77% | 116–103 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
+11.6 | 149.2 | 86% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Pittsburgh
|
-1.3 | 129.1 | 53% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Minnesota
@
Wisconsin
|
+12.6 | 133.6 | 86% | 60–63 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Air Force
|
-6.5 | 140.9 | 23% | 77–65 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Boise State
|
+9.4 | 129.3 | 81% | 64–67 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
-4.6 | 134.3 | 36% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Charleston
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-9.8 | 154.6 | 18% | 92–79 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Georgia
|
-4.2 | 134.2 | 42% | 64–76 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Georgetown
|
-6.1 | 143.3 | 22% | 73–57 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.