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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 7.1 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Syracuse @ Duke	+17.0	140.4	90%	64–101	✓
Wagner @ Long Island University	+9.4	137.6	83%	65–83	✓
Howard @ Delaware State	-10.4	130.0	16%	91–59	✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central	+3.9	143.5	64%	76–80	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State	+15.3	137.9	89%	55–92	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State	-5.2	147.5	28%	86–91	✗
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M	-2.0	143.8	42%	63–68	✗
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	-1.6	132.0	42%	70–66	✓
South Alabama @ Marshall	+3.5	146.3	65%	80–84	✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+6.9	138.9	76%	65–70	✓
New Orleans @ Incarnate Word	+0.5	150.6	52%	78–64	✗
McNeese @ Northwestern State	-12.5	135.7	14%	75–64	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+4.0	134.1	66%	62–65	✓
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State	+0.6	139.6	50%	86–78	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M	+1.5	142.2	59%	70–82	✓
Southern @ Texas Southern	-0.0	151.7	47%	73–74	✗
Drexel @ Stony Brook	+3.0	132.1	64%	69–72	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-4.2	134.4	30%	78–68	✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian	+0.3	137.6	51%	68–72	✓
Houston @ Iowa State	+5.4	133.8	67%	67–70	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern	+15.1	153.6	89%	66–75	✓
Boston College @ Florida State	+9.4	139.6	83%	72–80	✓
Michigan @ Purdue	-1.6	151.6	41%	91–80	✓
Villanova @ Xavier	-5.4	147.2	29%	92–89	✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo	+10.2	141.3	86%	72–70	✗
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	+2.9	140.3	63%	54–66	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.