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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–7 on winners
spread MAE 11.3
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota
@
Purdue
|
+16.6 | 137.0 | 90% | 57–85 | ✓ |
New Haven
@
NJIT
|
+1.8 | 132.0 | 52% | 64–70 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
South Florida
|
+16.7 | 152.8 | 87% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Marshall
|
+2.6 | 153.3 | 59% | 61–77 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
VCU
|
+11.3 | 147.8 | 82% | 81–78 | ✗ |
Maine
@
Boston University
|
+8.1 | 134.4 | 76% | 69–59 | ✗ |
Bryant
@
Iona
|
+11.0 | 141.8 | 85% | 63–69 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Notre Dame
|
+9.5 | 143.2 | 80% | 65–80 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
NC State
|
+10.8 | 154.1 | 83% | 45–85 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Boston College
|
+0.5 | 132.3 | 54% | 76–74 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+8.1 | 144.3 | 78% | 77–85 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
George Washington
|
+21.4 | 153.0 | 90% | 70–58 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Fordham
|
+12.8 | 135.0 | 87% | 54–75 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Houston
|
+25.1 | 135.0 | 91% | 38–80 | ✓ |
UT Martin
@
Southern Illinois
|
+3.3 | 140.6 | 63% | 54–83 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+1.2 | 144.0 | 51% | 68–59 | ✗ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Tulsa
|
+23.7 | 152.7 | 91% | 84–117 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Kansas City
|
-6.6 | 144.6 | 25% | 64–60 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Utah Valley
|
+11.6 | 139.6 | 82% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
-0.0 | 141.2 | 51% | 65–80 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Texas State
|
+3.7 | 143.1 | 63% | 83–86 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Nebraska
|
+5.9 | 149.2 | 76% | 60–90 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Boise State
|
+14.1 | 144.2 | 87% | 64–86 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
San Diego State
|
+11.3 | 135.2 | 86% | 71–89 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Cal State Northridge
|
-1.6 | 145.5 | 44% | 87–89 | ✗ |
Green Bay
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-2.1 | 158.5 | 45% | 85–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.