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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
App State
@
East Carolina
|
+2.5 | 133.4 | 61% | 67–54 | ✗ |
Western Carolina
@
Virginia Tech
|
+16.8 | 150.1 | 89% | 74–96 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+5.1 | 135.2 | 67% | 58–50 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Iowa State
|
+15.9 | 145.0 | 87% | 62–66 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Missouri
|
+17.9 | 151.4 | 89% | 77–85 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Syracuse
|
+15.5 | 141.7 | 89% | 63–71 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
-4.2 | 143.5 | 31% | 80–69 | ✓ |
Army
@
UMBC
|
+9.5 | 144.5 | 82% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.