What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–5 on winners spread MAE 8.4 23 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Virginia +23.2 135.3 91% 60–84 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Kentucky +26.6 140.0 91% 67–103 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Howard -4.3 140.2 35% 69–73 ✗
Coppin State @ Saint Joseph's +14.5 143.1 88% 65–87 ✓
South Dakota State @ Ball State -5.9 132.9 25% 68–64 ✓
Little Rock @ West Virginia +22.8 131.2 90% 58–90 ✓
Columbia @ Stony Brook -2.4 143.0 39% 73–77 ✗
McNeese @ Rhode Island +2.1 140.4 55% 66–64 ✗
Bucknell @ Rider -2.1 134.5 36% 51–38 ✓
Illinois @ Ohio State +0.3 149.1 53% 88–80 ✗
Brown @ Providence +13.1 147.2 87% 79–86 ✓
Morgan State @ DePaul +14.6 144.9 88% 49–92 ✓
Penn State @ Indiana +12.2 147.6 86% 72–113 ✓
South Dakota @ Wyoming +18.1 152.5 90% 79–106 ✓
USC @ San Diego -9.4 156.0 17% 94–81 ✓
Dartmouth @ Colorado State +17.3 151.8 89% 55–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State +13.6 146.2 87% 48–73 ✓
Florida @ UConn +6.5 136.8 75% 73–77 ✓
Long Beach State @ San José State +6.3 135.8 72% 83–89 ✓
Norfolk State @ Baylor +12.7 143.4 87% 67–97 ✓
UAlbany @ Yale +19.7 146.1 90% 82–93 ✓
Merrimack @ Princeton +2.6 132.2 60% 59–56 ✗
Miami (OH) @ UNC Asheville -1.2 147.2 42% 90–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.