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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–1 on winners
spread MAE 11.5
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Carolina State
@
Charleston Southern
|
+13.6 | 145.8 | 88% | 44–84 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Southern Miss
|
+8.4 | 141.3 | 78% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Texas
|
+16.1 | 160.9 | 88% | 69–95 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Kansas State
|
+22.1 | 153.9 | 90% | 49–108 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
New Orleans
|
+2.0 | 147.1 | 61% | 83–84 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
UMBC
|
+1.7 | 142.3 | 54% | 83–79 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
VMI
|
+2.2 | 145.0 | 56% | 70–86 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Michigan
|
+20.5 | 148.5 | 90% | 61–89 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
BYU
|
+5.2 | 151.2 | 71% | 64–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.