Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +130 L-MD -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -1.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -2.1 (+13.9) | 147.7 (+8.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -2.2 (+13.8) | 145.0 (+11.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -1.8 (+14.2) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -2.4 (+13.6) | 145.5 (+10.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | L-MD 70 – 67 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#350) | -11.0 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#312) | -2.32 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#307) | -3.26 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#275) | 0.354 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 58.2% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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