I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Cameron Hall · December 9, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread L-MD -2.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money VMI +130 / L-MD -155
Model Predictions
Spread Total VMI win
Actual VMI +16 156 Won
Massey VMI -1.0 (+15.0)
Massey Totals 152.4 (+3.6)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 86%
Efficiency Plus ML VMI -2.1 (+13.9) 147.7 (+8.3) 51%
Baseline Tuned ML VMI -2.2 (+13.8) 145.0 (+11.0) 56%
Baseline ML VMI -1.8 (+14.2) 145.4 (+10.6) 47%
Baseline Plus ML VMI -2.4 (+13.6) 145.5 (+10.5) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 27, 2024 L-MD 7067 VMI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VMI L-MD
Overall 6-26 12-20
Conference 1-17 8-10
Home 5-9 8-6
Away 1-14 3-13
Neutral 0-3 1-1
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L17 L1
Avg Pts For 68.5 73.7
Avg Pts Against 83.2 78.5
Massey -14.8 (#350) -11.0 (#318)
Bradley-Terry -1.96 (#312) -2.32 (#328)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.55 (#307) -3.26 (#326)
RPI 0.439 (#275) 0.354 (#351)
Shooting & Four Factors VMI L-MD
FG% 36.0% 44.4%
3PT% 27.3% 28.2%
REB / G 32.6 30.6
OREB / G 11.9 9.0
AST / TO 0.74 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 43.3% 50.8%
TOV% 17.9% 18.6%
ORB% 29.3% 26.4%
FT Rate 23.9% 22.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.1% 54.5%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 17.6%
DRB% 58.2% 64.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.0% 25.5%

Game Analysis

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