This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–11 on winners spread MAE 9.6 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Santa Clara @ Saint Louis -0.7 149.2 48% 70–71 ✗
Georgetown @ Dayton -0.2 139.6 50% 79–84 ✗
Duke @ Arkansas -6.5 148.3 24% 80–71 ✓
Wichita State @ Colorado State -1.9 140.5 46% 70–76 ✗
Stanford @ Minnesota -1.0 139.1 49% 72–68 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Northwestern +6.1 151.4 69% 86–81 ✗
Virginia Tech @ VCU +2.7 145.8 60% 68–86 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Purdue +24.7 136.5 91% 62–109 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Gardner-Webb -4.5 135.7 30% 76–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Wake Forest +15.9 144.8 88% 73–86 ✓
Illinois @ UConn +0.7 147.0 56% 61–74 ✓
Richmond @ Charlotte -3.5 142.7 36% 71–66 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Vanderbilt +2.5 149.8 64% 71–96 ✓
Longwood @ Siena +6.5 142.6 80% 63–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Nevada -1.7 143.3 45% 65–81 ✗
Indiana State @ Alcorn State -7.0 137.9 24% 74–81 ✗
Cleveland State @ Missouri +25.0 161.3 91% 59–86 ✓
Texas State @ Seattle U +7.6 133.7 82% 52–66 ✓
Southern Utah @ Robert Morris +16.5 150.9 90% 54–61 ✓
Oklahoma @ Marquette -3.6 150.7 38% 75–74 ✓
Monmouth @ Ball State -5.1 130.2 30% 80–73 ✓
Hofstra @ La Salle -2.5 140.2 43% 63–58 ✓
Wright State @ Butler +14.8 143.5 87% 69–94 ✓
Providence @ Florida +8.7 159.9 80% 78–90 ✓
Furman @ Illinois State +8.3 135.6 84% 65–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Arkansas State +1.6 145.9 59% 80–85 ✓
Nicholls @ Tulane +4.6 145.7 66% 72–82 ✓
Chicago State @ Youngstown State +11.7 144.4 86% 64–87 ✓
Navy @ UNC Wilmington +4.6 136.2 69% 57–87 ✓
Maine @ American University +4.8 135.6 67% 61–74 ✓
NJIT @ Eastern Michigan +11.8 135.7 86% 55–73 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Davidson +7.1 142.9 77% 74–90 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina +13.7 149.7 87% 62–74 ✓
Queens University @ Virginia +17.0 158.1 89% 69–94 ✓
Colorado State @ South Florida +4.1 155.6 75% 83–68 ✗
Washington @ Colorado -0.1 150.1 60% 68–81 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Lehigh -3.9 143.9 35% 72–70 ✓
Le Moyne @ Lafayette +0.5 146.4 46% 76–63 ✗
Merrimack @ Pennsylvania +6.8 144.5 74% 65–77 ✓
Texas A&M @ Florida State +8.6 160.1 83% 95–59 ✗
Wisconsin @ TCU -0.7 146.8 48% 63–74 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Xavier +9.3 137.2 79% 67–88 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Idaho State +3.4 142.1 68% 50–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.